Sphinx

No, UK universities have not been taken over and corrupted by Chinese money and persuaded to orientate their research programmes; otherwise, surely there would be more evidence of serious investigation of the Tacitus Trap, one of the three critical traps that Xi Jinping warned China against back in 2014 (together with the Thucydides Trap and the depressingly mundane Middle Income Trap – was there no Aristotelian remark about the importance of the mesoi that could have been repurposed? Okay, no alliteration…). Critical voices in China have objected that the Tacitus Trap is not actually a Western concept (the relevant Wikipedia entry cites only Chinese sources); surely this would be a great opportunity to improve the authority of the idea by making it a valid debate in Western political theory? Especially as current events seem so relevant…

Quick recap (my original discussions here and here): Tacitus’ Histories opens with the brief and chaotic rule of Galba, as celebration over the fall of Nero (at least among the ‘better’ people) is rapidly replaced by discontent and anger over the uselessness of his successor (who, as Tacitus famously remarked, “by common consent would have been pronounced equal to empire, had he never been emperor”, 1.49), and especially among the soldiers who felt insufficiently rewarded. News arrives in Rome of the deaths of two military commanders, both accused of plotting their own revolts, and this arouses anger against Galba; the critical conclusion being that “when a ruler once becomes unpopular, all his acts, be they good or bad, tell against him” (1.7) – and, one might add, regardless of whether he is actually responsible.

Since, at the time of writing, Boris Johnson’s popularity (and hence the level of support for his party) seems to be holding up despite the steady flow of scandals, accusations of corruption and incompetence, apparent contempt for propriety etc., there is surely still time to set up a proper study of what happens when the vaccination bounce wears off and popularity fades. The Tacitus Trap implies the existence of a tipping point, which clearly we haven’t yet reached, after which the public stops being so tolerant, indifferent or forgiving of things that they previously shrugged off; the Johnson approach assumes that getting away with murder is a permanent attribute, or at least the consequences of actions can always be shrugged off with a classical quip or endearingly surreal stream of consciousness. (Bunny-hugging, anyone?).

Of course, as with all ideas drawn from classical antiquity (looking at you, Thucydides Trap), some adjustment is always necessary. Focusing on the person of the emperor arguably makes sense in an autocracy; in most modern regimes, it’s less clear that this makes sense (so, the obvious case study of a UK government falling into Tacitus’ Trap, the Major government after Black Wednesday, it’s not at all obvious that focusing on the ’emperor’ is the most helpful approach). The Chinese approach deals with this issue by focusing exclusively on the state or its local components, avoiding any mention of the potential culpability of its head for loss of popularity or credibility.

It’s worth stressing that, as is often the case with these things, Tacitus’ account is much more complex and interesting than the reduced one-line version. This is one observation among many, one facet of the rapid loss of credibility of Galba’s regime rather than a total explanation of it. One might easily expand the parameters of the Tacitus Trap to encompass the corruption of state servants, the willingness of the rulers to ignore the rules when it suits them, the failure to deliver on promises – actual behaviour, in other words, rather than just poor news management and public relations.

Galba’s problem, one might argue, was not just his attempt at pushing forward outmoded if praiseworthy values in unsuitable times (the line about choosing rather buying soldiers; his choice of Piso as heir) but his utter failure to impose these restrictions on his own people – prefiguring the problem of not getting credit even for the better elements of his rule. The overthrow of Nero – the “getting it done” of 69 CE – could buy him support for only so long…